02 September 2013

Welcome to September. With the SMMT predicting around 390,000 new cars to be registered in the next four weeks, it’s likely to be a hectic time for everybody.

Not that we should be complaining. That figure would be an 8.5% increase on last year , which itself was 8% up on 2011. Perhaps SMMT is deliberately avoiding a prediction above the psychological 400,000 barrier, which hasn’t been seen since 2007.

It appears there is no end to the customers’ appetite for a bargain. But, make no mistake, it is bargain hunting that is driving the current market rather than natural demand. The deals on new are almost too good to be true and, for once, the old adage that ‘there’s never been a better time to buy’ stands up.

Back in April when we quizzed senior auto retail executives on the likely size of the UK new car market for our Future of Auto Retail report, they said it would not climb over 2.2 million before 2017; very few thought it would ever reach 2.4 million again. Now, 2.3 million looks achievable this year.

And certain senior group bosses have privately expressed concern to us that pressure from some manufacturers to take even more cars will be stepped up in the final quarter, despite the huge sums of money that have been thrown at the customer already.

Does that matter?

Probably yes, if you’re sitting on a large stock of ex-demo cars that are struggling to sell. Probably yes, if you’ve taken your eye off the used car forecourt and it’s rammed with over-age, over-valued lemons. Probably yes, if you don’t have the CRM systems in place to cope with customer demand.

But actually, in the long run, no. Everybody in the industry knows what’s going on. Good retailers should be making money out of current market conditions and stacking up new customers to fill those vacant workshops for the next five years.

Will we hit 400,000 units? I hope so – but the most important thing is to enjoy September, however hard you’re working. Opportunities such as this don’t come round very often.

Rupert Saunders

Tags: 63-plate, 63-reg, new cars, plate change, regisrations, sales forecast, sales peak, SMMT